Envivio has indefinitely postponed its IPO due to "market conditions" according to its underwriters. Which is funny, because we happen to be in a short term rally at the moment. Of course, it could be because investors are not quite as dumb these days as they have been in the past, so they're not really falling for the "we don't make money and aren't sure how we're going to do so" business "plans" that so many companies seem to be throwing out these days. After all, look at what's happened to LinkedIn and Pandora.
For more IPO madness, check out Why Groupon is Poised for Collapse by Rocky Agrawal.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
The World Isn't Ending Yet
It seems like every day you hear another doom and gloom headline. Underwater mortgages. Debt ceiling crisis. Riots in Greece. Maybe even something like this.
"'Sally Cameron thought she had done everything right,' wrote Kevin Carey last week, retelling a story he read in the Washington Post. 'But when she hit the job market, her Ivy League management degree didn't seem to matter. The worst recession in decades had pushed the unemployment rate to nearly 10 percent and good jobs were scarce. Sally paid the rent by tending bar and filled her time with volunteer work.'"
But of course that quotation isn't from 2011, or even 2008. It's from 1982. Sally Cameron is currently a successful manager for a consulting company. Boom and past cycles come and go; the trick is to position yourself so that you can profit from them regardless of the overall market direction. A wise businessman named Levi Strauss made a fortune by selling equipment to prospectors. It didn't matter if the people who bought his tools found gold or not; Strauss made money either way. You can do the same if you stand apart from all the mad frenzies, the fear and greed, and dispassionately observe what's going on.
You can read about more apocalyptic predictions that failed to come to pass over at The Motley Fool.
"'Sally Cameron thought she had done everything right,' wrote Kevin Carey last week, retelling a story he read in the Washington Post. 'But when she hit the job market, her Ivy League management degree didn't seem to matter. The worst recession in decades had pushed the unemployment rate to nearly 10 percent and good jobs were scarce. Sally paid the rent by tending bar and filled her time with volunteer work.'"
But of course that quotation isn't from 2011, or even 2008. It's from 1982. Sally Cameron is currently a successful manager for a consulting company. Boom and past cycles come and go; the trick is to position yourself so that you can profit from them regardless of the overall market direction. A wise businessman named Levi Strauss made a fortune by selling equipment to prospectors. It didn't matter if the people who bought his tools found gold or not; Strauss made money either way. You can do the same if you stand apart from all the mad frenzies, the fear and greed, and dispassionately observe what's going on.
You can read about more apocalyptic predictions that failed to come to pass over at The Motley Fool.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Bottom Forming?
So now that we've had six straight weeks of losses is it time to sell or buy? We just bought on Friday, and here are a couple of reasons why.
First of all, one of our proprietary indicators flashed that a bottom was forming. Then we saw this article. Whenever major figures start saying time to sell we strongly consider buying. And finally, as this article points out, what we're seeing is selling without a huge spike in volatility. That fact would seem to indicate that there's not a whole lot of conviction behind the selling.
All of that being said, there are a few caveats here. Nobody really knows what the end of QE2 means for the markets. Nobody's really sure that there won't be a QE3. Our overall disposition is to be bearish during the summer months. And we believe that our indicators are firing a little early, so we probably have a bit more downside to go. However, we'd rather be early than late to this party, and we firmly believe a short-term bottom is forming.
First of all, one of our proprietary indicators flashed that a bottom was forming. Then we saw this article. Whenever major figures start saying time to sell we strongly consider buying. And finally, as this article points out, what we're seeing is selling without a huge spike in volatility. That fact would seem to indicate that there's not a whole lot of conviction behind the selling.
All of that being said, there are a few caveats here. Nobody really knows what the end of QE2 means for the markets. Nobody's really sure that there won't be a QE3. Our overall disposition is to be bearish during the summer months. And we believe that our indicators are firing a little early, so we probably have a bit more downside to go. However, we'd rather be early than late to this party, and we firmly believe a short-term bottom is forming.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Yet Another Homeowner Forecloses on Bank
Apparently Bank of America didn't learn anything from the Wells Fargo mess. This time a Florida couple won a judgement against BofA after the bank tried to foreclose on their house, a house that they had bought with cash. Naturally BofA, which was in such a hurry to take back a house it didn't own, was a little tardy in cutting the couple a check for their lawyer fees.
That is until the couple showed up at their local branch with a moving truck and sheriff's deputies, armed with their own foreclosure notice and ready to take away the branch manager's desk and chair. Somehow BofA suddenly found the time to pay off their debts when the cops showed up. And so another victory for the little guy was won.
That is until the couple showed up at their local branch with a moving truck and sheriff's deputies, armed with their own foreclosure notice and ready to take away the branch manager's desk and chair. Somehow BofA suddenly found the time to pay off their debts when the cops showed up. And so another victory for the little guy was won.
Gold or the Stock Market?
You may have heard this story about the hundred year old woman whose bank account was opened in 1913. But what really caught our eye was this comment, "Gregg . . . received as gifts a $2.50 gold piece and a $5 gold piece, which went into the account. 'I wish I hadn't put those in,' she said, aware of gold's value. 'It was during the Depression, and my dad told me to put them in the bank.'"
Naturally gold bugs jumped all over that statement. "Of course she should have kept it because gold makes you rich!" they shouted. But in actuality the coins would be worth somewhere between $450 and $700.
Meanwhile, if she had invested that money in the stock market at an annualized return of 8.92%, she would have $6405.67 today. Stock market wins again.
Naturally gold bugs jumped all over that statement. "Of course she should have kept it because gold makes you rich!" they shouted. But in actuality the coins would be worth somewhere between $450 and $700.
Meanwhile, if she had invested that money in the stock market at an annualized return of 8.92%, she would have $6405.67 today. Stock market wins again.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Yet Another Motley Fool Award
Another month, another Motley Fool Award. Today it's the Motley Fool CAPS Score Leader Award for calling the stocks NKA and MBND.
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